Donald Trump at Risk of Losing Florida, Republican Poll Suggests

A new survey by a pollster that tends to favor Republicans showed Donald Trump with only a slim lead over Kamala Harris in Florida.
A Napolitan News survey of 774 likely voters, conducted by RMG Research on September 25-27, showed Trump with a 2-point lead over Harris in the Sunshine State (50 percent to 48 percent). That’s within the poll’s margin of error, suggesting he may not be in the lead at all.
The poll factors in undecided voters who are leaning towards one candidate. When leaners are not included in the results, Trump has a 3-point lead over Harris in Florida (50 percent to 47 percent). That’s also within the survey’s margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
Florida was once a pivotal swing state, as seen when the 2000 election between George W. Bush and Al Gore came down to just a few hundred votes in the state. Florida is considered to have become more Republican in recent years following Trump’s victories in the 2016 and 2020 elections, and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis’ resounding reelection in 2022.
Newsweek contacted the Trump and Harris campaign teams for comment via email.
Democrats have become optimistic that Florida and its 30 Electoral College votes could be in play for the party in November. A victory for Harris in Florida would heavily tip the scales in the vice president’s favor to win the 2024 election overall.
Democratic National Committee Chairman Jaime Harrison said in September the party thinks it “has a shot” in Florida, and that people may be “surprised on election night about what happens in the state.”
The poll showing Trump with a 2-point lead over Harris in Florida was conducted by RMG Research, founded by pollster Scott Rasmussen, who also set up polling company Rasmussen Reports.
In a post on X, formerly Twitter, while sharing the Florida results, Rasmussen said: “The survey was completed before Hurricane Helene and it’s impossible to know the impact that storm could have on turnout.”
Rasmussen also noted the importance of the margin of error soon after sharing the Florida survey.
“Suppose a poll shows a candidate ‘winning’ by 1 point and the poll has a 3.5 percentage point margin of error. If that candidate loses by 1 point, was the poll accurate?” Rasmussen asked.
A Victory Insights survey released late September also revealed Trump is leading Harris in Florida by 2 points. The poll’s margin of error was plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.
In response to the Victory Insights results, Trump spokesman Steven Cheung told Newsweek: “Anyone who thinks Kamala Harris has a chance in Florida is clearly suffering from Trump Derangement Syndrome and needs to get checked out.”
Forecaster and polling aggregator 538 says Trump has an average lead over Harris in Florida of 3.9 points. That’s a greater margin than the 3.3 points that Trump beat President Joe Biden by in 2020.
The forecast model from Decision Desk HQ/The Hill currently gives Trump a 71 percent chance of winning Florida in November.